The number that reprices everything
India consumes roughly 50 million tonnes of maize today. By 2030-31, credible projections put demand at approximately 72 million tonnes — a 44% jump in barely six years. Production, meanwhile, sits near 33–35 million tonnes. Even before the decade turns, India is consuming far more maize than it grows, and the gap is widening every season.
Where the extra 22 million tonnes comes from
Three demand engines are pulling simultaneously. Ethanol has become India's #1 feedstock, already absorbing around 12.5 million tonnes — roughly half of marketable supply routed through the programme. Feed remains the largest single user at ~54% of the crop, with poultry the heaviest buyer and compounding annually. Starch and processing quietly draw ~7 million tonnes a year into sweeteners, pharma and packaged food. None of these engines is slowing down.
Supply is not keeping pace
Indian maize yields have improved, but area and productivity growth together deliver low-single-digit supply expansion — nowhere near the 6-8% annual demand growth implied by the 72M trajectory. Without a step-change in seed technology, irrigation and post-harvest infrastructure, the arithmetic points one way: structural deficit.
What a structural deficit means for the market
For traders, it means sustained volatility and a widening basis between domestic and landed import prices. For feed and starch processors, it means input risk that must be planned, hedged and contracted earlier. For policymakers, it forces food, fuel and feed onto a single balance sheet. The people who read this early will set the terms for everyone else.
Act on the number, not the headline
The 72M question is the organising theme of the Maize Markets Summit & Expo 2026 (28–29 September, The Westin Mumbai, Powai Lake). Two days of outlook, price direction and counterparty meetings, built for the people whose P&L touches maize.